Wednesday, 20 July 2011

Sarawak----the next point .



                                Political developments in Sarawak to day are
unsettling .To say that it is unsettling is an understatement .  If one looks at the emerging conflicting political and social values  among the various ethnic groups , it is difficult to assume that there will be a smooth transition of power when Taib Mahmood steps down as Chief Minister .
                                Lets look back into history and search for similarities of life in Sarawak then and life in Sarawak now. May be by doing this we can see if there had been some basic flaws in our assumptions of  the political scenarios of Sarawak .
                                 Life in Sarawak  since the days of the Brunei Sultanate had always been one big phenomenon of the theatrics i.e of play acting and of make believe .  There were stand-ins every where just like in  the world of the theatre where you see things that are not .This typical life in Sarawak continued to the  days of the White Rajah .They inherit this phenomenon to  the present day where many things that they see are unreal and illusory
                                 Sarawak is the land of the Dyaks.This is the basic fact that sometimes becomes disputable  because of the illusions surrounding it . It is a fact that sometimes we see  and sometimes we don't .
                                  The Dyaks are the original settlers of Sarawak.They are the sons of the soil  , the same position as what their brothers  in the Malay Peninsula enjoy .If there is such a thing as Malay Privileges for the Malays living in the Peninsula Malaysia ,  the same must also exist for Dyaks in Sarawak .  And why not ?
                                   History tells us of different things about them but little of the misery they went through at the hands of those in power in those forgotten days.  It is time that the history of Sarawak  be re written to reflect the actual happenings of the past .
                                 The story of  James Brook  getting hold of a chunk of Sarawak and henceforth be given the title of  'Raja' by the Sultan of Brunei ,for instance, is hard to believe.The historical account of how the government of Sarawak was handed over to James Brook as a reward for his services to the Sultan  is too incredulous   that is only good  as a fiction in the English literature .The incidents were  fictitious and spoken and repeated  to insult the dignity of Malay royalty .
                               The most probable thing that could have happened  was  that the 'territory' had been acquired by James Brook through the use of force  and of fraudulent means and with the connivance and support of the British Government at that time .
                           The title  'Raja' was self proclaimed and was done in charity or in jest,perhaps in  response to enquiries  by foreign traders as to who was in charge of the place.
                         Sadly though , the Brooks stayed on in Sarawak for 3 generations spanning over period of 100 years in a world that was full of illusions. . The use of  the Malay Royal protocol  such as the use of the Malay state regalia by the so called white Rajah, complete with the use of the yellow umbrella, were nothing but  clownish acts designed to ridicule Malay customs and traditions . The unfortunate part of it all is that the Malay nobility ,the Chinese traders and the Dyaks submit themselves to all these regal pomp  as part of the sacred virtues and grandeur of the Brook's royal house .
                             While the Malay nobility was busy paying their obeisance to the Raja , the Dyaks continued to live in the jungles isolated ,neglected and miserably poor.
                              True enough in true spirit of democracy and in fulfilment of the principle of the rule by majority, when Sarawak gained its independence in 1963 the  administration of the State was handed over to the Dyaks in an untimely fashion .  The Dyaks were not yet ready to accept such huge responsibility of leading a government . . There was hardly any Dyak  that was capable of taking over the reigns of the Government and there were insufficient  number of qualified individuals in the civil service that could effectively support the policies of a Dyak government .
                                If  independence was not given in such a hurry ,there could be time and space for the development of core professionals and intelligentsia within the Dyak community  who could take over the administration from the colonial government smoothly and honourably.
                          On independence Sarawak was hardly stable and went through a period of political turbulence in which its first Chief Minister ,a Dyak was sacked .  For Sarawak to be stable it was generally accepted  that the leadership of the government  be in the hands of someone with strong leadership qualities and had the support of the Federal government .There were problems galore and the most dreaded was an anti west Malaysian sentiments  .The Federal Government saw this to be the imminent danger  that could lead to a break up of the Federation.
                               This was the time when Abdul Rahman Yaacob who was then the Federal Minister of Education was asked to help .  After winning a seat in the State General Election he was made the Chief Minister ,taking over the job from Tawi Sli .Abdul Rahman was a shrewed politician and an intellectual.He knew the political grounds of Sarawak well  and within a short time changed the entire political ,economic  and social landscapes of Sarawak .
                               New  state institutions were set up to strengthen the State's financial position. .His control over the state resources of timber and natural resources gave him further leverages to rule Sarawak the way he wanted .
                          However he also was aware that he comes from a minority ethnic group and that in a democracy there will come a day when the baton have to be passed over to the majority .
Rahman Yaacob retired in 1981 the post of Chief Minister was passed on to his nephew Taib Mahmood ,a person of equal calibre but with different styles of leadership .
                        Both Rahman and Taib know that in a democracy there is no such a thing as entrenched leaders. They were only stop gaps and remain in office at the pleasure of the voters. And  the Dyaks who form the majority would allow them such pleasure for as long  as there were no capable Dyaks around to lead their own pack .
                          Those in the minority,the likes of Rahman and Taib therefore govern Sarawak by proxy .
                           Many politicians in Sarawak do not subscribe to this premise .They had an entirely different vision of politics in Sarawak .They believed that the leadership of the State government must always be in the hands of the Malays regardless of the principle of  majority representation .This is the essence  of Sarawak politics .
                       Whenever the talk of succession in Sarawak surfaces ,it is  always a Malay succession.Little have been heard of other alternatives  .This is unreal .
                           The scenarios have now changed .The Dyaks as the silent majority have now waken up to this fact and are now looking hard at the imminent change of Sarawak political land scape .With the entry of opposition politics brought by Pakatan Raakyat ,Taib Mahmood must seriously take a look at the this fundamental concept of a rule by proxy .The MoFC rally in Sarawak in early August cannot therefore be viewed simply as an anti Taib exercise . It is indeed more than that .
                             The rule of the Dyaks are surely coming as a natural phase of Sarawak history .                
                            When that happens let them come over smoothly and not with a vengeance .If the leadership of  Sarawak continue to remain largely in the hands of the Malays , politics in Sarawak is nothing but a freak .
                               Let's leave the theatre for once .

Sunday, 17 July 2011

Let's call it a Malaysian Dilemma

                   It is a week since the Bersih Rally .A lot have been said and much more will be said in the months ahead . Now that the dusts have settled down what is currently being touted appear to be more balanced and more sensible .Some of the views  expressed are now less emotional and more restrained and something that we can continue to build upon .
                    Take for instance the statement made by Rais Yatim which says that his organization is proposing to conduct a nation wide survey to determine the motives of those who took part in the Rally. I think this a fair statement and should be welcomed .
                      In the first place after all that has been said  we still do not have a clear profile of the protesters .Who are these protesters  ? Where do
they come from ?How many are urbanites and how many come from afar .? Being a multi racial country it is important that we know exactly the ethnic composition of the protesters .Equally important is a knowledge of the age groups and their  political inclinations and the number of men and women in the protests . These information and many others are useful when we want to
 state the success or failure of the rally .The handling of the Rally by the government is a side issue  and the public debate on this issue should end quickly .
                  The  main issue remains the debate on electoral reforms or the need for it . Our opinion on the state of the art on electoral practice in this country cannot be randomly made .The veracity of the expressions depends on which side it comes from .As we say often there are good losers and bad losers .
                      Another major concern is the level of commitment the protesters have when they took part in the rally.Were they united in their purpose? Or united only to see the march reach the end ?.A full commitment would be in the form of their understanding of the issues involved that necessitated in the Rally in the first place . Is it possible that the thousands were there for the fun of it ?. Is it possible that they were there to be with their  friends or simply because of the excitements of the occasion or because it was always fun to demonstrate an opposition to the government of the day or for some financial gains which some had alluded? If the full commitment to the call of electoral reforms cannot be found in their hearts and mind then the  Bersih rally had been nothing but a political shadow play .
                      The Bersih Rally is far different from the protest rallies that were seen in  Egypt or Tunisia . Those protests were  cries against the Government and for regime change . Bersih was not a cry for regime change .It was not intended to topple anybody in power . Najib and co can continue in office for all we care for as long as they subscribe to  the true democratic principles and practice .
                          Najib has said that the electoral practice in this country is free and fair and had used the loss in the last General Election of the five formerly BN states as an illustration  of democracy in practice. The illustration is incorrect.  Election results do not necessarily reflect the standard of the art of electoral management which is the subject of our debate.
                             The onus is definitely on Najib to prove  his claim.
                             Let's not be over simplistic .

Tuesday, 12 July 2011

The aftermath


                                      The government is now in a defence mode .This is pathetic.The defence mode is the realm of the accused and not that of the prosecutor . Statements from the Home Minister that the government is preparing video recordings of the rally for public viewing in reply to accusations made by Bersih supporters that there was police brutality during the Rally and that of the Defence Minister to say that political problems could not be solved through street demonstrations are all gasps coming from the loser's corner  saying that  reasons will be provided  for the dismal failure  .These are not the typical chest beating  cries of a Government .The government stays on top of any situation and will only admit failure under very extraordinary circumstances .Bersih is certainly not one of those circumstances .
                                 In the case of the video tapes ,the Minister should have said that the police had acted under extreme provocation .If there were scuffles between the protesters and the police they were unfortunate incidents and that the police acted in line of their duty to prevent further injuries and damages.
                                Likewise the Defence minister should have kept his  mouth shut .His statements should have been made before and not after the event . Statements like these gave the protesters a moral victory as they echoed those of  the protesters who through Bersih had always wanted the issues of free and fair election settled within the ambit of the political arena .
                                Sadly even the police were on the defensive when they commented on the arrest of the 1600 protesters . There was no need for the police to make a public announcement that all those arrested were given royal guest status at a sumptuous dinner that cost the taxpayer 30RM per head .Such statements were totally unnecessary .If one is under arrest then the normal procedure should follow irrespective of who and what are involved . The police do not run a welfare catering center and those arrested cannot expect to be feted in that extravagant style   . Why must those arrested be treated differently from the normal practice unless of course it is a form of apology . Is this the case ?
                                 The aftermath must be a time of soul searching .It is a time of stock taking and not a time to put on your fighting gloves and further arguments . As a government you are obliged to explain your actions , if so needed , to  Parliament  and not to the media. .
                                 Lets be quiet .

Monday, 11 July 2011

A tragedy and a comedy of errors all at once

                         

                           I see the handling of the Bersih Rally last Saturday as a
tragedy i.e a tragedy of errors . Now that the physical aspect of the Rally is over the emotional , political and economic aspects of the Rally remain vibrant  in the minds  of the people .
                             Indeed there was no outright winner . In a tragedy  normally no one wins . All sides lost except that each differ in the degree of the pains inflicted .
                            One would have expected a win win situation for all parties  in the event but given the ruckus ,the loss of a precious life , the injuries and the continuing ugly debate on democracy and the unsettling effect on the nations economy and the conduct of the police the only conclusion is that it was a loss loss situation .
                            I had always held the view that putting pressure on the government is never a desirable thing to do . Bersih for instance could have capitalised on  the Agong's intervention by accepting the Agong's advice with grace and postpone the scheduled Rally .In times of such national anxiety, a postponement would have made  Bersih appeared descent .Their readiness to comprise in the light of the Agong 's titah would look heroic to the older generation of Malays whose forefathers held that taat setia to the sovereign is unquestionable .
                    That way Bersih would have gone miles in their battle for the hearts of the people . Of course it is a step back but there can be many steps forward .
                   If that had happened , the government could not have claimed victory  because the issues of electoral reforms still  remain on their plate.  It is not going to be easy to gainfully dispose the issue .
                      Although the 9th of July has passed the match of political wisdom  is far from over . The government claimed victory  and said that the Rally had little of people support . The IGP said that only a handful 6000 people came., and this in spite of the fact that pictures taken by various people show otherwise .
                       On the other hand , Bersih claimed that it was a major win  because of the thousands that turned out to support the Rally  .They claimed victory over the fact that the demonstrators had shown restraint during the Rally.They proved that in a peaceful march    there was no need for the use of violence  . And like their earlier claims it would indeed be a peaceful walk  if  the police did not intervene the way they did.   There would have been no the tear gas and water cannons .
                         We have seen very few demonstrations in other countries where protesters do not retaliate at the police . In our case there was no throwing of   stones ,sticks or water bottles etc . Isn't that great?.In the images  shown around on the Internet we do not see protesters  running away  from  arrest but  they were running away from the tear gas and water cannon .As a matter of fact the demonstrators were prepared to be arrested . If the police had wanted to arrest the protesters all that they have to do is to ask them to line up and get into the trucks .I think many will volunteer .
                            The march was never a security issue . It was a political issue and should be dealt with in a political style with  the political leaders on both sides in the forefront .  The issue was the need for an avenue for people to exercise their right of  expression in a democracy. Is it security or political  ?
                            I have said earlier that such issue could not and should not be an  entirely a police matter . It is wrong for government leaders to say so. .
 If  the matter is left  entirely to the police they will look at the problem entire from a law and order perspective. . If the government  declares it as a an illegal assembly ,then it is an illegal assembly to them , no matter what the plea is .   The declaration was made well before the event takes place .Was it an illegal event  before the event takes place ? If the government  had not come  out with such declaration July 9 would have been an entirely different day .
                              The worst had already happened . The government had gained nothing from the event .The debate now is within the government  with the big question  being : could matters be different ?
                           There is now a need  for damage control . The time and energy available now will be used instead to map out new strategies for the coming election . For the government it is like going back to the drawing board . The old plans and designs will now appear obsolete and irrelevant.
                            Therefore we cannot blame the police if they had brought in water cannons ,tear gases ,road blocks ,city lock downs , mass arrests etc.That is what their books say .And they had to follow them .
                             There is a flood of views expressed by concerned people on the event of the Rally . The alternative media described more succinctly the virtues of Bersih while the mainstream media  report on the evils brought about by the event .
                               Nowadays it is fitting to remember that Malaysians generally are level headed .They are no more colour blind as they were once before .They know how to evaluate things  and know how to express their disappointments and disillusionment the way people do in other parts of the world . This  is where the danger is . And this is where Tuan Guru Dato Seri Hadi's remarks on the probability of another  rally becomes pertinent . Being more aware of the happenings in other parts of the troubled world is also no longer a bliss.Therefore it is best that our pronouncements conform to some  universal judgements. Hence Najib' remarks on the silat  exponents and the role they can play as the 3rd line of the nation's defence is a cultural distaste and a national embarrasment . It is an insult to the intelligence of Malaysians .
                            Marina's posting on the subject of the Rally and Mathias Chang's posting  are excellent exposures and combined together provide  a helicopter view of the event .Marina with her journalistic skill  gave a twist of the human interest  while Mathias in typical fashion was there to hit hard at the core .
                            We are on the way forward for the better .

                           

                                                     
                                             

Friday, 8 July 2011

The Mandate

         

                      The latest significant development with regard to the Bersih Rally scheduled for tomorrow is the lock down of Kl .The measure seems right for now because it will now make it difficult for people to get to any part of the city leave alone to gather for an assembly .
                        Whether there will be enough police or military personnel to effectively enforce the lock down is another question .It is going to be difficult but not impossible . The lock down , if it is successful will be a solution to the problem only  with regard to the holding of the Rally .It is only the removal  of the symptoms . The main disease remains potent and serious  .The cry that we all should heed is therefore not for the holding the Rally but the cry  is for the need of an electoral reform .
                         This is the daunting task of the Government of the day that subscribes to the fundamentals of democracy and to the belief that it obtains its legitimacy to rule from the people through a General Election . A government that is strong and popular will not hesitate to go back to the people for their mandate through an election  but a weak and an unpopular government will probably be not so eager .
                            Does this amply describe the present position ?
                 

                             I feel nostalgic today .Theres nothing much to comment as
new events have yet to unfold .In the meantime please share the following with me .


 
Keramatlah sumpah ini

GUSARNYA HATI INI
MASIH JAUH DARI KIAMAT
MESIR TUNISIA LIBYA DAN BANYAK LAGI
PENGKISIRAN SESAMA SENDIRI
MENJADI JADI
MENGALIR DARAH
MENAMAT NYAWA RIWAYAT
BUMI PEMBERIAN ILLAHI TIADA KELIHATAN LAGI
DI SELUBUNGI KECAIAN DAGING DAN SERPIHAN TULANG
BERHENTILAH KEGILAAN INI
BERHENTILAH KEDUKAAN INI
HIDUP KITA SERIBU TAHUN LAGI
MENAHAN SENGAT KUKU KUKU BESI
LEPASKAN KONKONGAN INI
DAN CERAHLAH KEGELITAAN HIDUP INI.

Thursday, 7 July 2011

The last few breath.




                       Within the last six hours or so several new measures had been announced by both the government and the Bersih organizers ahead of the scheduled rally . Among the more significant ones are that the Bersih rally will still go ahead in Stadium Merdeka even if no permit is issued .What is the message that Bersih is trying to put across is not easily comprehensible .Are they saying that they are prepared to break the law now ?  To go ahead with the rally when their application for a permit is rejected is tantamount to a blatant disregard for the rule of law .
                      This action will divide Bersih and invite the unnecessary debate among their own followers . This is not the time for division but a time for unity and reason where  you want every one on your side regardless of social or political affiliation .A divided gathering is a weak gathering and this is the very thing that the government want to do . It is therefore best for Bersih to stay united and show that they  are not the devil you know . For Bersih to pit their strength against that of the Government is the last thing they want now that they come this far in terms of support and attention not just from the common people but the King himself . Keep the question to a later stage when the picture is clearer. .Play the game of the oppressed and of the unfair victims so that sympathy will be with you .
                            Police announcements on the cancellation of transportation services and the blackout of the media and the disruption of the Internet and the social media and the use of cell phone etc are all very unsettling .In times of public chaos and disorder  communication  is the vital means of getting people together .To do away with them is to admit defeat .

Wednesday, 6 July 2011

Two more days to go .

                  With 2 more days more to go before the scheduled Bersih Rally take place ,I am getting more and more nervous . The huge controversies surrounding the proposed event bring out the big questions  : whether the event will take place at all ? and if it does , will it be peaceful or chaotic  ? Because the event is so close a lot of us choose not to comment for fear of being wrong .However since the conflicts in public opinions  over this subject are so insurmountable , one is tempted to go ahead and say your piece .
                         Malaysians are aware of the Arab Spring now taking place around the Arab world .The street demonstrations there are definitely not the necessary evils.Clearly with the ongoing havoc responsible leaders around the globe and those in the Arab world themselves are re thinking their very actions .The situations there will come to an end one way or the other.There will be the final winners  and losers at a price even if takes one or two generations to realize .That is the realty of life .
                         In the case of Bersih and the Malaysian political scenarios there will be enough people who see the need for a convergence of minds on the possibilities of trouble ahead and that it is better to reroute the events of the coming days .
                          Stubbornness and pride must be compromised for the sake of national peace and security . These are the the possibilities . The Bersih leaders will lose in their battle for the hearts and minds in the event of trouble  because they will be blamed for taking the first initiatives .The government will loose in terms of world opinions and loss of voter support in the coming general election .
                         Hence the next 48 hours are really heart pounding but yet predictable .
                         Before  singing out I have 2 small comments to make .One is Dr.M' comments that the way the government handles the Bersih rally may turn away voters from the government parties .Coming from Dr.M these comments are mild and very unlike of him. It only shows his disinterest and disillusion in the Umno-Bn political style ..
                         The other matter that attracts my attention is Najib's association with the silat exponents where he was reported as saying that the Silat exponents are the third line of the nations defence forces . As a third line of the defence forces ,how much public money would be spent on their establishments ? . One can see the billions now . In any case why  say it now ? Can it be uttered at such other more peaceful times ? If this remark is to frighten people away from gathering ,then it is an act of futility .People will still soldier on for as long as they believe they have a cause in what they are doing . And the cause is that their leaders had been unfairly elected. Pure and simple.
                          It is claimed that there are 4 million silat  exponents in the country to day .Can we assume that all of them are going to take instruction from the their grandmaster like they do in the days of Hang Tuah ?  Do we  know that of the stated 4 million how many of them are supporters of the Opposition  ? As  far as I can guess they are mostly members of Pas which has vowed to support Besrsih .
                           Lets us have more courage to accept change we can .

The ultimate comedy

 
  According to the FMT newsflash Perkasa has applied for the use of the Stadium Negara as a venue for their own Rally on July the 9th .According to the news report ,they were aware that the Bersih's organizers had also applied for the stadium for similar use but was  rejected .They claimed that their application was submitted earlier than that of Bersih and it was likely that theirs will be approved .
                   The Perkasa show will then go on. But what show  ? What will be the rally for ?  To rally for what ? If it is to provide the people with an avenue to demonstrate their demands for a certain particular course of action , then what exactly is the demand ? It is ridiculous to suggest that Perkasa is against a free and fair election   .
                    Perkasa is definitely confused and those that support Perkasa or take heed of Perkasa are utterly confused too.They are like a bunch of people who are in the midst of waking up out of a spell and are completely dazed or as the Malay says "bengong"
                              For the authorities to disallow Bersih the use of Stadium Negara and yet welcome Perkasa to do the same is totally incoherent .The world is watching the happenings in Malaysia now . Only those  on the side of madness can remain calm .
                                Live long the people of Malaysia.

Sunday, 3 July 2011

Bersih ...childish utterances will continue ?




                    I read the Agong's advice to the Government and the Bersih leaders  on the proposed rally with some satisfaction .The call for restraint and the need for continuing dialogue was what I advocated in my posting yesterday .
                      As I suggested the issue at hand is now so huge and no longer just a police matter .It is now a concerned issue of the nation .The government must be more specific in its pronouncements rather than saying that they leave it to the police  to act .The issue is much bigger than that. Let's have some intelligible statements from the cabinet and not  individual ministers or the Agong .
                           Most of us are nervous and unsure about how things are going to  be like in the days ahead .A friend of mine told me yesterday that her brother had advised her family to stock up food in case there is trouble on July the 9th .She does not say exactly the kind of trouble but that everybody should be prepared for the worse .Just how many more sisters , brothers ,mothers and fathers are around to do the same thing .This is where the real danger is ....rumour mongering .Spreading words of fear and ill will  could bring about more unnecessary alarms .
                           Utterances such as those that boasts of power and strengths are at this point unwarranted.Talk about the ability to bring about 1 million silat exponents. and 4 million street demonstrators to counter  Bersih ,and calls for further arrests are totally stupid and insane .This is the time for national reconciliation and not of confrontation unless the latter is the preffered agenda of the government .
                           I believe a cooling off period between parties should be in place right now . We have to stop the silly utterances and the undue harassment for sanity and good sense to prevail .
                           Time will always be there if one seriously look for it . The Bersih Rally can be put off or postponed if there is really a desire to do so .
                          Lastly let's pray that Malaysians will continue to be blessed.

the Bersih Rally 9 July 2011






I am tempted to comment on the much discussed forthcoming Bersih Rally.
                       I am looking at the proposed event from my own perspective of someone once involved in the internal security of the country.
                       The Bersih rally will have a significant impact on the nation 's history .It will be a turning point for the nation in its manifestation of democratic tolerance . It will also be the best judge of the country's performance in the upkeep of law and order .
                        But the big question in most of our minds is :which way will the Bersih Rally go ? What of the event itself and the aftermath ? .Will the event itself be peaceful and orderly or will it be riotous and bloody  ?The opposing parties i.e the government and the police on one side and the NGOs and the opposition parties on the other have their own views on the event.Speculations on what the 9th of July will bring about have been rife, to say the least .
                   Some say that it could the like of May 13, an event of chaos and bloody riots .This is an unfair and unscrupulous comparison .May 13 took place  immediately after a general election that saw the drastic and violent change in the political equation of the country .It was the beginning a downfall of  Malay political power and the rise of Chinese economic arrogance and suppression. .The Malay's fear of economic suppression were deep seated because they were then living in neglect and poverty. Malay frustration  at the failure of the governments to improve their economic opportunities became a key force in their mounting anger during the riots .
                  The scenario is now different. Malaysians are now living as one community  compared to pre May 13 era when people were living in segregated communities .There is less economic segregation and wider inter racial understanding is more perceptible.   Given the time and the  political will  inter racial understanding in Malaysia will be its best asset not its liability .
                    Some speculate that the Rally will be a peaceful gathering of the civil society with the police playing their part in making sure that things are in good order in the spirit of true democracy.  .Why not ? With so many brickbats already thrown at the Government on the way it is handling the proposed rally it is best it that it capitalises on the adage that it stoops to conquer .The conquerors are the people and the present day government will be seen as sharing the same desire for a fair and free election.
                          One blogger  even suggested that on that day, it will not be a bad idea for Najib to be standing at the gates of the palace to receive the memorandum from the rally .If that happens can one imagine the world reaction  would be .The adulation and the admiration of the way the rally is being handled will be  self gratifying for Najib and the people of Malaysia .
                          One speculation which is more direct and specific was that the rally will be a non event .It will be attended by 3000 to 5000 people  . Perkasa and the Umno youth will not be there because they will not be able to gather sizable numbers to be a credible force .This scenario seems unlikely because too much water had flown under the bridge .The size of the crowd is any one's guess. It will be hard to predict . The police are already arresting the divisional leaders of Bersih thus  depriving the followers of orders and directions. Some people are already intimidated and may not want to take on the perilous road.
                        Road blocks are being set up all over the entry points to the nation's capital and hence it will be difficult for people to gather . After all that is the objective of the government . People cannot gather .Why ? because it is an illegal gathering .Why is it an a illegal gathering ? .Because it has no police permit .
                        That is the the nutshell. If that is all there is to it ,then give it a police permit . The gathering then becomes legal .The fears of security and public order is another issue that have to be dealt separately .
                        Let us have confidence in our police and surely they can handle the situation  given their experience in handling the fight against the CPM for 40 long years.The problems then were  bigger .
                         There is still time left. Bersih leaders and the government must sit down and talk  over the question of fair and free election round the conference table .It is foolish to look at this problem entirely  as a security issue and leave the problems to the police .Let us get all that matters involved . The media ,the academia ,the corporate leaders ,the army ,the civil society ,the professionals . the religious leaders and not the least the political parties and the ECmust be there as the true loving people of Malaysia
                          Bersih can postpone the proposed march if they see that the government are serious about meeting their demands for free and fair election .
                          After all that is the essence of democracy